📋 Video Summary

🎯 Overview

This video from MOMOTV's "小宇宙大爆發" features a discussion with stock market expert, 杜金龍, on the current state of the Taiwanese stock market. They discuss whether it's wise to hold stocks over the upcoming Lunar New Year, potential market highs, and specific stock recommendations. The video offers insights into market trends, investment strategies, and stock analysis.

📌 Main Topic

Analyzing the Taiwanese stock market, providing investment advice, and discussing whether to hold stocks over the Lunar New Year.

🔑 Key Points

• 1. Market Outlook for 2024 [0:07]

Expects the market to rise in Q1 (January-March) of 2024, potentially reaching a high in April.

Suggests caution and profit-taking in Q2 and Q3, with the possibility of another upward trend in Q4. Estimates a 12% increase for the year, with a potential high of 33,000 points.

• 2. Timing the Market & Holding Stocks [0:14]

Advises considering profit-taking when the market reaches 29,000-30,000 points.

Suggests reducing stock holdings by about 30% at those levels. Recommends holding stocks over the Lunar New Year (封關) period, with the market closing on February 11th.

• 3. Stock Recommendations [0:42]

Favors TSMC (台積電), Hon Hai (鴻海), and Delta Electronics (台達電) as preferred stocks.

Predicts significant growth for Hon Hai in the coming year. TSMC: Suggests a target price of 1800 next year and 2100 the following year, with potential for 3600+. Hon Hai: Expects 300 in the next year (April/May) and 375 in 2027.

• 4. Market Trends & Historical Data [6:14]

Taiwan's stock market has historically averaged a 21% increase annually.

Discusses the "three bulls and one bear" pattern. Mentions that since 64 years of Taiwan stock market history, there are 16 bear markets, and the majority of years have seen gains.

• 5. TSMC Stock Analysis & Strategy [10:30]

Shares a strategy of selling TSMC shares in increments, i.e., selling when the price goes up by a certain amount (e.g., $50-$70).

Highlights the importance of EPS (Earnings Per Share) as a key indicator. Recommends buying when the P/E ratio is between 15-20.

• 6. Other Stock Analysis [15:35]

Hon Hai (鴻海): Expects EPS of 14 next year.

Delta Electronics (台達電): Expects 1000+ by April/May of 2025. MediaTek (聯發科): Suggests selling after the dividend payout on Jan 6th.

• 7.Portfolio Review & Recommendations [19:57]

Suggests adjusting a portfolio with 75% financial stocks, 20% cyclical stocks, and 5% tech stocks.

Recommends rebalancing towards more technology stocks. Suggests buying Fubon Financial (富邦金).

💡 Important Insights

• • Market Volatility: The speaker acknowledges market volatility, mentioning a 7% pullback in November and the importance of using that to your advantage. [8:41]
• • Financial Stocks: Financial stocks might not increase as much as other sectors. [26:12]
• • Timing: The video stresses the importance of timing the market. [0:07]

📖 Notable Examples & Stories

• • The speaker shares his 40-year experience in the stock market (36:00).
• • The speaker's wife's and mother in law's stock holdings are used to illustrate how to diversify. [23:03]
• • The speaker mentions how his wife's views influence his stock choices, and her negative opinions of MediaTek (聯發科). [22:18]

🎓 Key Takeaways

• 1. Consider taking profits when the market reaches 29,000-30,000 points, but don't sell everything.
• 2. Focus on stocks with strong EPS growth, especially TSMC, Hon Hai, and Delta Electronics.
• 3. Rebalance your portfolio to include more technology stocks and less financial stocks.
• 4. Be aware of the historical trends and patterns in the Taiwanese stock market.

✅ Action Items (if applicable)

□ Review your current portfolio and consider rebalancing. □ Monitor the market and be prepared to take profits at the suggested levels. □ Research the recommended stocks: TSMC, Hon Hai, and Delta Electronics. □ Consider selling MediaTek after the dividend payout on January 6th.

🔍 Conclusion

The video provides a comprehensive guide to navigating the Taiwanese stock market, offering expert advice on market timing, stock selection, and portfolio management. The main message is to be prepared for potential market highs, take profits strategically, and stay invested in promising stocks.